A small number of competitive races will determine whether women increase their share of representation in the 119th Congress.
Kelly Dittmar, director of research for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, identified 11 female House incumbents in hard-to-call contests against male challengers and another 11 nonincumbent female House candidates in close races for seats now held by men.
“The fate of these women will be really important to determine where we land after November, making again the prediction of up, down, or stasis quite hard,” Dittmar said at a Tuesday briefing.
The list of at-risk House women includes the longest-serving woman in the history of the US House, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who’s seeking a 22nd term against Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in a district that was redrawn after the 2020 census to favor Republicans.
The incumbents are pivotal because in the shoo-in contests, where one party is strongly favored to win, the number of women well-positioned to take House seats now held by men are offset by men who are set to replace departing women.
“That would leave us at about a wash between departures and new additions. So then it really comes down to the women, both incumbents and non-incumbents, in the most competitive contests,” Dittmar said.
The House now has 126 women, including 92 Democrats and 34 Republicans. There were 122 women in the House in the 117th Congress, according to CAWP.
Women are favored to succeed women in some contests.
California Democrats Lateefah Simon and Jennifer Tran are vying to succeed Rep. Barbara Lee (D), who ran unsuccessfully for Senate. In New Hampshire’s 2nd District, former Justice Department official Maggie Goodlander is favored over Lily Tang Williams (R) for the seat of retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D).
The closest House races pitting two women are in Virginia, where Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) faces Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal (D); Iowa, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) is in a rematch with former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D); and Oregon, where Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) is up against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D).
The number of women nominees for the House, 258, is comparable to the 260 who were nominees in 2022. The number of Democratic women rose to 191 nominees from 178 and the number of Republican women fell to 67 from 82.
“When we look ahead to 2025, these numbers don’t suggest any significant rise in Republican women’s representation — something that is necessary if we are serious about achieving gender parity in our political institutions,” said Debbie Walsh, CAWP’s director.
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