Congress’ Health-Care Talks Look Bleak: Congress Tracker
The prognosis for health-care talks in Congress is grim.
As lawmakers race to stave off massive insurance price increases for millions of Americans in January, the two parties and President
Start with Republicans. In a matter of weeks, the GOP is trying to develop something that has eluded the party for the 15 years since the Affordable Care Act became law: a health plan that unites Republicans and can win some Democratic votes. (They’ve never even managed the GOP unity part).
It seems unlikely, to put it mildly.
Democrats are demanding a straight extension of tax credits — set to expire at year’s end — that help lower costs for millions who purchase insurance through the ACA. Trump says he won’t sign anything of the sort.
- “THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE,” he posted on social media this week, arguing that the credits help insurance companies.
With little time before Senate health-care votes promised in early December, the fight is veering toward a familiar graveyard: competing bills that all fail.
- “Feels like we’re stuck,” said Sen.
Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), arguing that negotiations with Republicans are useless with Trump firmly opposed.
Republicans and the White House are already signaling they’re looking beyond bipartisan talks, floating the long-shot possibility of a GOP-only health bill next year, using the reconciliation process to sidestep the Senate’s 60 vote rule.
That move, however, would take months — allowing premium increases to kick in — and is hugely cumbersome. It would require running a gauntlet of procedural rules, and near total Republican unity on a topic that sharply divides the party. Republicans barely pulled it off earlier this year on a subject that unites them, cutting taxes.
The dire outlook is predictable. Republicans hate the law often called Obamacare, but have never developed an alternative. Democrats want the extension, but are also eager to run on the issue in next year’s elections.
- “If Republicans refuse to act, the American people will understand why their health insurance premiums are through the roof,” said House Minority Leader
Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
He’s seeking a three-year subsidy extension, but said he hasn’t had “a single bit of outreach” from the administration. Democrats are confident — and Republicans fear — the GOP will take the blame for any price hikes.
Seeking an answer, House Republicans are just getting their gears turning, and Sen.
When his idea came up in committee Wednesday, a partisan meltdown ensued. Some moderate Republicans want their party to embrace a short-term extension to avert the January hit and buy time for long-term reforms.
- “This is something that has to be extended in the short term to deal with it. I think even some of our most conservative members recognize that,” Rep.
Mike Flood (R-Neb.) told Bloomberg Government Wednesday.
Hard-right conservatives, however, hate the ACA, and GOP leaders are cool to an extension, unless it includes reforms that, for example, cap the incomes of people receiving subsidies.
So what’s the path forward?
Looming deadlines may spur action. The December votes gives Democrats a chance to put forward a proposal of their choosing. The question is whether it’s a party-line bill or compromise. January premium hikes add to the pressure to act.
The most optimistic view is that, as in the recent government shutdown, a handful of senators can compromise to defuse the crisis. A hypothetical Senate deal could then become a vehicle championed by centrist House members.
But that would require a wide swath of support and a series of unlikely outcomes clicking into place.
- “If it was easy,” Flood said, “it would have been solved by now.”
Senate 2026 Calendar Released
Senators plan to spend almost all of October away from Washington ahead of the midterm elections next year, according to the 2026 calendar released Wednesday. Read More
For more details on the House and Senate’s combined voting schedules as well as an updated balance of power in Congress, download the latest BGOV OnPoint.
News From the Hill
House Votes to Repeal Phone Records Bill: The House voted 426 to 0 late Wednesday to repeal a provision tucked into the bill (
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Mills Censure Blocked: The House voted 310-103 to block a vote kicking Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) off his committees, voting to refer the censure to the Ethics Committee. Rep. Nancy Mace (S.C.) cited allegations of assault and stolen valor in pressing for a censure, Maeve Sheehey reports. Read More
Balance of Power: The GOP margin of House control will shift to 219-213 today after the resignation of Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) takes effect. Sherrill is the governor-elect of New Jersey, and though she won’t be sworn into her new job until January, her formal resignation creates a vacancy and allows the current governor, Democrat Phil Murphy, to call a special election.
Nvidia Chip Bill: White House officials are urging members of Congress to reject a measure that would limit Nvidia’s ability to sell AI chips to China and other adversary nations, according to people familiar with the matter, dimming prospects for legislation opposed by the world’s most valuable company, Mackenzie Hawkins reports. Read More
Stock Ban Vote: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) says she will move to force a vote on banning members of Congress from trading stocks if the House Administration Committee doesn’t seem “serious” about incorporating member feedback on legislation by Friday, Sheehey reports. The measure would likely be similar to bipartisan legislation (H.R. 5106) unveiled in September. Read More
Two-Party Push: Zach C. Cohen reports on a bipartisan effort to expand the work opportunity tax credit, a federal law that offers an advantage for companies that employ veterans, ex-felons, and recipients of needs-based benefits. The bicameral effort is about to bear fruit with the introduction of legislation that also would expand eligibility to businesses that hire military spouses. “You win by adding,” said Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who’ll be the lead Senate sponsor. Read More
Long Shot: Democrats are ready to lay down a policy marker with legislation seeking to reverse this year’s reductions federal food assistance. Skye Witley reports that the bill, sponsored by Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), is backed by the entire Senate Democratic caucus and a majority of House Democrats, according to Luján’s office. Read More
Today’s Floor Agenda
The House returns at 10 a.m. to consider:
- A bill (
H.R. 3109 ; BGOV Bill Analysis) that would require the Energy Department to direct the National Petroleum Council to examine the role of petrochemical refineries in US energy security; and - Legislation (
H.R. 1949 ) that would remove the Energy Department’s role in determining permits to export or import natural gas to countries without a free trade agreement with the US
The Senate will convene at 11 a.m. and will vote on whether to clear a House-passed resolution (
Off-the-Floor Highlights
Bipartisan legislation (
HHS Inspector General nominee Thomas Bell’s nomination is up for a vote in the Senate Homeland Security Committee, one day after the Senate Finance Committee approved his nomination along party lines, Ian Lopez reports. Read More
The Homeland Security panel will also vote today on John Walk’s nomination to be the Agriculture Department’s inspector general.
The Senate Judiciary Committee has again scheduled votes on nominees for Mississippi judgeships and US attorney positions who were held up several times previously. Also on the Judiciary agenda are votes on A. Tysen Duva to be assistant attorney general, judicial and nominees in Louisiana, and US attorney nominees for Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
Bills dealing with worker flexibility and tipped employees are being marked up in the House Education and the Workforce Committee.
Other hearings will look at:
- It’s Member Day in House Judiciary.
- Daylight saving time’s effect on tourism, in a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee.
- The future of retirement, in Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.
- Securing undersea cables from foreign threats, in a House Homeland Security subcommittee.
- How Main Street is revitalizing manufacturing, in House Small Business.
- Loopholes for chip-making tools in export control laws, in one House Foreign Affairs subcommittee; the designation of Nigeria as a “country of particular concern,” in another subcommittee; and elections in Honduras, at a third subcommittee.
- Oversight of VA’s medical disability examination office, at a House Veterans’ Affairs subcommittee.
For more on the week’s scheduled events, click here. Track committee votes on bills and nominations here.
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