Trump Prepares for Iowa Victory Lap: Starting Line

Almost Done

President Donald Trump’s in-person push convinced holdouts in his own party to stop digging in their heels on his big tax-cutting bill, and the House is on track for final passage this morning.

You won’t find any bill text for the overnight agreements that got the bill to the finish line. As Jack Fitzpatrick and Ken Tran report in this morning’s BGOV Budget, the ultra-conservative objectors were assured there’ll be some unspecified later action through either legislation or executive orders. Read More

In addition to the tax cuts, the bill would raise the debt limit, phase out clean energy incentives, put more money into Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration, cut Medicaid enrollment, and more. Get the details from our legislative analysis team: BGOV Bill Analysis: Senate-Passed GOP Reconciliation Bill.

Later today comes a victory party in Des Moines. Trump’s planning a speech at the Iowa State Fair that’s being billed as the opening of a year-long celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. In a social media post, he called Iowa “one of my favorite places in the World.”

“Iowa voted for me THREE TIMES, because they love my Policies for our Wonderful Farmers and Small Businesses, and they LOVE AMERICA!”

See also:

• Hero Statues, Party Plans Among Trump Pet Projects in GOP Bill
• Trump’s Tax Bill Set to Help SoFi, Other Private Student Lenders
• Gamblers Raise Alarm Over $1.1 Billion Tax Hike in Trump’s Bill

Today’s Numbers to Know

The government’s releasing an unemployment rate update this morning. Forecasters also will be watching the number of new jobless claims and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payroll count for signs of whether Trump’s trade wars are dragging on the economy.

In a Bloomberg survey, economists said they expect the report will show the unemployment rate crept up in June to 4.3%, which would mark the highest level since 2021.

ADP’s employment-tracking report showed nonfarm payrolls falling in June by a net of 33,000 jobs. Deeper in that data was the slice of US workforce in decline: there were fewer jobs in the education, health services, and business services sectors, offset by employment gains in other sectors including hospitality, manufacturing, and construction. Read More

One reason the numbers matter: A deterioration in the labor market would add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Trump has been vigorously complaining about Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who’s been cautious about interest rates because of concern about inflation. One of yesterday’s social media blasts said Powell “should resign immediately.”

Looking Ahead

A survey due out next week will test for changes in Americans’ willingness to keep the economy humming by spending money. The University of Michigan will release the results of its preliminary consumer sentiment survey. Its final survey in June — which uses a bigger sample size than for the numbers that will come out next week — showed an upswing.

See also: Powell Silence on His Future Complicates Trump Fed Chair Search

Tariff Deadline

Next Wednesday’s the day Trump says the US will start collecting higher tariffs on imported goods.

These are the country-by-country levies that were announced in April and then put on hold for 90 days as an incentive for trading partners to negotiate. So far those negotiations yielded a deal for a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports, a temporary truce with China, and a broad framework with the UK.

India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said his country is close to finalizing an agreement with the US. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he could see having “trade wrapped up by Labor Day,” with a focus on bringing back “high-end” manufacturing jobs.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on June 26 that “we’re going to announce a whole bunch of deals over the next week or so.” Read More

See also:

• China Vows Retaliation If It’s Hurt by US-Vietnam Trade Deal
• Japan’s Carmakers Absorbing Tariffs May Bolster Trump Position
• US Lifts Chip Design Software Curbs on China in Trade Deal

CDC Nominee

Susan Monarez, a career public health official, will learn next week whether the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee supports her nomination to head the CDC.

When the panel questioned her, she said she supports immunization — “I think vaccines save lives” — and also supports the make-America-healthy goals of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who fired all the members of a vaccine evaluation committee.

That committee has a vital role, she said, “and it must make sure that it is using science and evidence to drive that decision-making.”

Some senators seemed to find her combination of responses frustrating. “I’ve got questions about your willingness to follow through on your values,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told her.

Monarez is Trump’s second nominee for the role. He withdrew the name of vaccine critic and former Rep. Dave Weldon hours before his scheduled confirmation hearing.

NDAA Consideration

In addition to the HELP Committee vote on that nomination, senators also will be working next week on the annual defense policy bill.

Subommittee action on the National Defense Authorization Act begins on Monday, with the full senate Armed Services Committee markup planned for later in the week.

Fiscal 2026

In the House, look for markups next week on several of the fiscal 2026 spending bills; a subcommittee hearing on the Dodd-Frank financial law; and a new chairman of the Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, as Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) relinquishes his gavel to devote time to running for the Senate.

Netanyahu Visit

War, peace, and trade are on the agenda next week when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to Washington. Meetings are scheduled with Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and members of Congress.

There’ll be a lot to talk about, as the Trump tariff negotiation deadline approaches and the administration assesses its next moves in the the Middle East.

The White House meeting is set for Monday. Later in the week, Trump plans a summit with the leaders of a handful of mineral-rich African nations, according to a Semafor report.

Scrutinizing the Consultants

Next week brings an unusual deadline for McKinsey, Ernst & Young, and other consulting firms that sell their services to the government. They have until July 11 to justify the value they’re providing for the tax dollars they’re paid.

The General Services Administration asked for “a comprehensive overview of your firm’s federal engagements, including spending patterns and pricing structures across all active and historical agreements.”

The notices also say that GSA’s “baseline presumption is that most, if not all, of these contracted services are not core to agency missions.”

Bloomberg Government’s contracting analysis team pulled the numbers for the firms that got the notices to see how much money may be on the line:

Before You Go

Latest on Mistaken Deportation: Lawyers for Kilmar Abrego Garcia say in a court filing that he was severely beaten, deprived of sleep and subjected to psychological torture at an El Salvador mega-prison after he was wrongly deported by the Trump administration. Read More

Home state Opposition: Both of New Jersey’s US senators are now on record against making Trump’s former personal attorney, Alina Habba, the state’s top federal prosecutor, saying in a joint statement that she “does not meet the standard to serve.” Read More

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