Trump’s Cuts to Weather Agency Stoke Farmer, Insurance Worries

Workforce downsizing at a key federal weather agency threaten to delay billions in crop insurance payouts to farmers and limit access to critical weather prediction tools, according to farmers, lawmakers and former federal officials.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s this year faces an estimated 16% cut to its workforce of about 12,000 staffers. Hundreds of employees have already left or been dismissed as part of the President Donald Trump’s plan—engineered by Elon Musk’s department of government efficiency—to drastically shrink the federal workforce, with more cuts expected.

Opponents worry the US food supply and economy could be affected, threatening the agriculture industry’s ability to plan for drought, pests, and extreme weather.

Republicans have lobbied the administration to protect NOAA facilities in their districts while also supporting Trump’s spending reduction drive. Still, the threat of disasters is front-of-mind for members, who in December passed $21 billion in aid for farmers after a destructive storm season.

“The return on investment to the taxpayer with the Weather Service and NOAA is tremendous,” Brad Coleman, an atmospheric scientist and past president of the American Meteorological Society, who spent 38 years at NOAA at posts across the country, said.

NOAA’s mission is to protect life and property and add value to the US economy, he added. Weather disasters created more than $20 billion in crop losses in 2024, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a top industry lobbyist.

A NOAA spokesman reiterated that the agency doesn’t comment on personnel matters. “NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience,” spokesman Scott Smullen said.

A senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, a division of NOAA, works on tracking the first hurricane of the 2024 season in Miami, Fla.

Photographer: by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Lawmaker Pushback

The Commerce Department has offered early retirement or buyouts through April 17, meaning NOAA could lose hundreds more employees and critical knowledge right before spring planting season.

Democrats, including Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.) and Rep. Jared Huffman (Calif.), have held public briefings in protest featuring former officials and laid off employees.

Some Republicans have also spoken out, especially about cuts in their districts.

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“I am very supportive of the mission of NOAA,” said Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), an Agriculture panel member, when asked in March what he thought about the workforce cuts to the agency. “Reductions in force that reflect more efficiency are important; just firing people to be firing them is not.”

Lucas added that NOAA has a critical facility in Norman, Okla., located in Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole’s (R) district. “So, I’d say we’re going to work through those issues.”

House Agriculture Committee member Don Bacon (R-Neb.) urged the Trump administration to “be a lot more cautious and methodical” in firing government employees, likening Musk’s approach so far to his management of startup businesses.

“That doesn’t work in government, and you’re dealing with real people, not just dealing with rockets,” Bacon said in a recent interview.

‘Will Really Hurt’

Next to Bacon’s district, for example, is a national drought monitor that federal agencies rely on to inform farmers’ eligibility for financial assistance and tax deferrals.

“This is used by Midwest farmers, not just in Nebraska, so it’s a very important tool,” Bacon said.

Staff reductions at NOAA already have impacted work on the monitor responsible for triggering more than $29 billion in federal payouts to farmers and ranchers, said Mark Svoboda, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The weekly drought monitor map is a collaboration between the university, NOAA, and USDA. Several of the map’s authors took federal buyout offers, and several of the more than 400 people who evaluate the map accuracy were laid off, Svoboda said. More than half of those employees work for NOAA.

“If this continues, if we’ll lose even more authorship, that will really hurt,” Svoboda said. “That’s an even bigger concern to me, just keeping the lights on,” he added.

Insurance Delays

Crop insurance payments to farmers following natural disasters could also get delayed if NOAA loses staff. USDA spent more than $53 billion in crop insurance assistance to producers from 2019 to 2023, according to a government watchdog.

USDA’s Risk Management Agency, partnering with private insurers, relies on NOAA weather data to verify claims and inform insurance rates.

Marcia Bunger, the agency’s administrator under the Biden administration, said fewer staff at NOAA would slow the sector’s ability to determine losses after a storm and send payments to farmers.

“I am just really disheartened that we have forgotten the platform that private insurance is stood up under,” said Bunger, who’s now a crop insurance agent at Farm Credit Services of America.

‘Our Daily Business’

The agriculture industry is also worried about the fallout.

From insect activity to snowfall prediction to Colorado River water reductions, Matt McGuire relies on forecast data from NOAA as chief agricultural officer for JV Smith Companies, which has operations in Arizona, California, and Colorado. The enterprise grows and sells a range of produce, including lettuce, broccoli, celery, and green onions.

“If they start getting predictions wrong, or don’t make them, and we’re going the wrong way when the weather is going the other way, that will seriously impact things long term,” said McGuire, who has worked in agriculture for more than 40 years.

A fifth generation orange grower walks near orange trees that were uprooted and destroyed when Hurricane Ian hit his orange groves in 2022 in Arcadia, Fla.

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

McGuire, a self-proclaimed government skeptic, said he’s interacted with NOAA employees on different projects over the years and praised them for being hardworking and data-driven.

Jane Vogt, owner of Janemark Winery and Vineyard in Brandywine, Md., said her life “depends on an accurate weather forecast.” For instance, knowing about a thunderstorm ahead of time is crucial to protecting vines from mold, she said. Vogt added forecasts are also crucial when making decisions about outdoor winery events and staffing levels.

Farmers will not get “those products with the same quality or lead time” that they are accustomed to, warned Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator during the Biden administration, during a March press briefing.