Senate Republicans choose a new leader today — and by proxy, how much influence they’ll give Donald Trump. But first, you should know:
- Two Senate Finance Committee veterans are vying for GOP leader, giving them an advantage before next year’s tax overhaul.
- Senate Republicans will have to turn from celebrating their majority to defending it ahead of 2026, when the map gets tougher.
- There’s competition for lower-level positions in House Republicans’ leadership elections today.
GOP Senators Pick New Leader for Trump Era
Republicans will for the first time in 18 years elect someone other than Mitch McConnell to lead them today.
Their decision by secret ballot will be an early indication of whether they’ll serve as a check on — or a rubber stamp for — Donald Trump.
One for John: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis only coyly said that he was voting for John, a sly nod to either Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) or Sen. John Thune (S.D.). The Johns, as they’re dubbed, are considered the establishment favorites.
Trump’s Make America Great Again power sphere, which includes Elon Musk, is pushing for Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.). Scott, who received only 10 votes when he tried to unseat McConnell (Ky.) two years ago, embraced the MAGA endorsements and the suddenly public campaign.
Even under Republican control, the Senate — with its filibuster and other arcane rules — has long been a source of frustration for the incoming president.
Trump backed Scott in 2022 but hasn’t endorsed anyone in this race. Some Republicans gently cautioned him against an endorsement.
Thune and Cornyn, who are both institutionalists and have served as McConnell deputies, would be expected to carry on in the long-time leader’s mold. That could create friction with the incoming White House over Ukraine aid and other spending matters. Thune, in particular, is a free trade advocate who has cautioned that Trump’s tariff proposals would drive inflation. Read More
If either Finance Committee members Thune or Cornyn gets the top spot, it would put a veteran of tax debates in a pivotal role next year. That experience would allow them to anticipate potential pitfalls when it comes to the policy differences and politics of the high-stakes debate, Zach C. Cohen and Chris Cioffi report. Read More
Read BGOV’S Congress Tracker for our breakdown of lawmakers’ agenda and the politics driving it.
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Senate GOP Faces More Competitive Map in 2026
Senate Republicans savoring their newfound majority will soon pivot to keeping that control in two years — when they face a more competitive map, Zach C. Cohen reports.
Republicans will be defending nearly two-thirds of the Senate seats on the ballot in 2026. At the same time, GOP gains last week coupled with a battleground map more evenly divided gives Republicans hope they can limit the kind of defeats that historically occur in midterm elections.
Losing the Senate could stall Trump’s agenda and make it difficult for him to push through judicial and other nominees. “If this follows history and in Trump’s second term his approval ratings are low and we see a backlash to the incumbent party, that would absolutely boost Democrats and could put the majority more in play,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
But she warned flipping the Senate “is hard to do when you look at the 2026 map.” Democrats are defending seats in blue states which showed shifts toward Republicans last week. Republicans will have a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats will have to pick up four seats.
All 13 states with Democratic senators up for re-election next cycle voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. But Trump’s victories in Michigan and Georgia this year signal Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) could face more competitive races. Read More
House Republicans Pick 2025 Leaders
Speaker Mike Johnson is poised to be his party’s pick to lead the House Republican conference at elections today, but there’s more competition for lower-level leadership posts, Maeve Sheehey reports.
Reps. Lisa McClain (Mich.) and Kat Cammack (Fla.) are competing for the conference chairmanship, which would make either of them the highest-ranking woman in the House GOP, offering a springboard to top leadership posts. The GOP is eager to keep a woman in its leadership ranks.
Johnson only needs a simple majority of the conference to become the party’s nominee for speaker, and he faces little opposition — though Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris (R-Md.) indicated conservatives are likely to put up an opposition candidate. The bar will be higher when the full House votes in January and Johnson (R-La.) needs a majority to secure the gavel, requiring near unanimity in the GOP with no Democrats backing him.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise (La.) and Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) are running for the same jobs and are on track to keep them. The selections come as the GOP is inching closer to a House majority next year with a handful of races uncalled by the Associated Press. The conference will hold a candidate forum this morning, followed by leadership elections in the afternoon. Read More
- For maps showing the latest election results for the White House, House, and Senate: Read More
- To get the latest election stories on BGOV‘s election news hub: Read More
- Check out the database of newly-elected members: Read More
- For a running list of defeated incumbents: Read More
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