Donald Trump has once again left everyone wondering: what’s next?
The president’s biggest and most risky military operation yet won near-term achievements: killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and opening the way for regime change.
But the initial success comes with many questions and only vague answers so far. Among the unknowns confronting Congress and global leaders:
- How long will this last? While Trump has abandoned his anti-interventionist promises, his allies say he has avoided “forever wars” by striking fast, achieving clear objectives, and getting out (see: Venezuela).
That looks harder in Iran, where the assault carries unpredictable consequences, including who’ll now lead the country of more than 90 million, and if they’re more (or less) friendly.
“There are many, many outcomes” possible, Trump told NBC News. “We could do the short version or the longer version.”
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), chair of the Senate intelligence committee, told CBS’ Face the Nation not to expect a large-scale ground force.
The US announced its first three casualties Sunday, and Trump warned there could be more. Three US fighter jets crashed on Monday after being mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses, but the planes’ crews all ejected safely. - Will talks resume? If Trump wants leverage, he made his point.
He says he’s open to more negotiations with Iran’s new leaders. But who that is, and if they’re more amenable to an agreement, remains unclear. - Will Americans back Trump? One of the first major polls after the strike, from Reuters/Ipsos, found just 27% of Americans support the move and 43% oppose it. Wars usually lose popularity over time, and Trump has yet to make a detailed case to the public about this one.
Many Americans already thought Trump needed more focus domestically. “He needs to make the case when you start a war of choice,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) told Bloomberg This Weekend Sunday. - Will Congress act? Don’t count on it. Democrats plan to force war powers votes in both the House and Senate, but they appear unlikely to have enough support to succeed.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to brief lawmakers this week.
Now Read This
From Talks to Strikes: How Trump went from negotiating to attacking, according to a team of Bloomberg White House, defense, and foreign affairs reporters. Read More
Defense and AI: OpenAI stepped in late Friday to deploy its own AI models within the Defense Department’s classified network, after rival Anthropic saw its relationship with the Pentagon implode over surveillance and autonomous weapons concerns. Read More
George Mason’s Trump Card: The Ivies can take a step back. As Trump has tried to fill out the federal bench he has nominated more alums of George Mason’s Antonin Scalia Law School in Virginia than any other school, Suzanne Monyak and Jacqueline Thomsen report. Read More
Incumbents Brace for Primaries: Tomorrow’s primary elections could oust vulnerable House incumbents in both parties, and might signal how the two sides are changing in response to the second Trump administration, Greg Giroux reports. Read More
Paxton Counters Cornyn: In Texas’ big GOP Senate primary, Attorney General Ken Paxton has used his office as a platform to bolster his image and campaign against Sen. John Cornyn, Ryan Autullo reports. His taxpayer-funded team almost never answers questions from the media, but frequently amplifies his exploits. Read More
Go Deeper With BGOV
Some senators are looking to force a vote on a joint resolution that would end all military operations against Iran that haven’t been approved by Congress.
The 1973 War Powers Resolution lets lawmakers order the removal of US forces from overseas hostilities that haven’t been explicitly authorized by a formal declaration of war or a congressional authorization for the use of military force, Greg Tourial writes in his analysis of S. J. Res. 104.
Senate Democrats had already been planning to use procedures laid out in the Vietnam War-era law to stop military action against Iran even ahead of air and missile strikes that were launched this weekend.
“Every single Senator needs to go on the record about this dangerous, unnecessary, and idiotic action,” Sen.
The measure is likely to face opposition from most Senate Republicans and some Democrats who have praised the administration for its actions against the Iranian regime.
The Senate in June rejected 47-53 a war powers resolution to limit US hostilities against Iran (S. J. Res. 59 ; BGOV Bill Analysis) following the US air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities.
Lawmakers in the past year also blocked a number of resolutions to limit US military operations against Venezuela and alleged drug cartels operating in Latin America in response to the Trump administration’s actions in the region.
Greg also has an analysis of the House war powers resolution.
Eye on the Economy
The global economy is feeling the aftershocks from this weekend’s attack on Iran and the counterstrikes. Gold rose as investors rushed to a safe haven and oil surged the most in four years as markets attempted to recalibrate to the news. UAE stock markets are closed for two days.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was all but halted after three ships were attacked. The strait is a key bottleneck for energy shipments, handling about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil in addition to liquefied natural gas.
Meanwhile, US equity markets dipped overnight. While they have been trading at historically high valuations, markets already grappling with fresh anxieties over artificial intelligence and potential cracks in credit now must contend with a spiraling military action that threatens to destabilize global shipping and limit travel.
Watch This
Watch Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) speak on Bloomberg This Weekend.
What’s Next
Coming up today:
9:45am — S&P global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data released
10am — Institute for Supply Management will issue its manufacturing index
10am — US Supreme Court hears a case regarding gun rights of drug users
11am — Trump faces reporters at Medal of Honor ceremony
2:15pm — JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television
3pm — First Lady Melania Trump presides over a U.N. Security Council meeting on children, technology, and education in conflict
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz begins a three-day trip to US on the heels of a Feb. 25-26 trip to China. He’s due to talk with Trump tomorrow.
Seen Elsewhere
NYT’s map of areas attacked in Iran
How talks between Anthropic and the Pentagon fell apart, via NYT
Joy and unease for Iranians in the US, from the WaPo
Politico goes inside the turbulent tenure of Noem’s former cyber czar
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